The USDA’s recent forecast reveals a notable increase in the spring wheat stocks-to-use ratio, rising to 41.5% for 2025/26 from 39.8% in the previous marketing year. With total spring wheat supply projected at 758 million bushels and production expected to reach 578 million bushels, the industry is looking at a 2% production increase compared to 2024. The 2025/26 marketing year, spanning from June 1, 2025, to May 31, 2026, is anticipated to conclude with ending stocks of 206 million bushels—a 7% increase from the previous year, potentially signaling a shift in market dynamics that farmers and processors need to prepare for.
Breaking Down the Spring Wheat Supply Numbers
According to recent USDA projections, the spring wheat market is heading for a period of increased supply. The total spring wheat supply for the 2025/26 marketing year is estimated at 758 million bushels, representing a significant increase from previous years. This supply consists of beginning stocks, imports, and domestic production, with production projected to reach 578 million bushels—a 2% increase from 2024 levels.
Domestic use is projected at 264 million bushels, primarily driven by demand from flour millers and food manufacturers who rely on the high-quality wheat ingredients that spring wheat varieties provide. Meanwhile, exports are forecasted at 288 million bushels, reflecting steady international demand for U.S. spring wheat. The combination of these usage factors results in ending stocks projected at 206 million bushels, up 7% from the previous marketing year.
The stocks-to-use ratio, a key indicator of market supply relative to demand, is projected at 41.5% for 2025/26. This represents an increase from the 39.8% ratio in 2024/25, suggesting a somewhat looser supply situation. Higher stocks-to-use ratios typically signal potential downward pressure on prices, which could affect producer profitability in the coming marketing year.
With these projections in mind, stakeholders throughout the supply chain—from farmers to processors to end-users—will need to adjust their strategies accordingly. The increasing supply relative to demand suggests that buyers may have more leverage in the market, while producers may face challenges in maintaining price levels experienced in previous years.
Weather and Geographic Factors Shaping Production
Weather conditions in the Northern Plains continue to be the most influential factor affecting spring wheat production. North Dakota and Minnesota, as the primary spring wheat-producing states, are particularly vulnerable to climate variations that can dramatically impact both yield and protein content. Recent patterns have shown increased variability, creating challenges for consistent production forecasting.
Soil moisture levels heading into the 2025 planting season will be crucial for establishing strong early growth. Current moisture profiles across the Northern Plains show moderate improvement compared to previous years, but lingering drought concerns in parts of North Dakota could still affect regional production capabilities. This geographic variability means that even with overall positive production forecasts, localized weather events could create significant regional disparities.
Protein content remains a critical quality factor for spring wheat, particularly affecting its value for milling and baking applications. Weather conditions during grain fill—particularly temperature patterns—directly influence protein development. Hot, dry conditions during this period typically result in higher protein levels but potentially lower yields, creating a quality-quantity tradeoff that affects market dynamics.
Climate models for the 2025 growing season suggest near-normal precipitation patterns across much of the spring wheat belt, though with increased probability of above-normal temperatures. These temperature projections could influence both planting decisions and eventual crop outcomes as farmers consider adaptations to changing climate conditions and explore drought-resistant farming approaches.
Global Market Influences and Export Potential
The global wheat market continues to evolve, creating both challenges and opportunities for U.S. spring wheat exports. Key export markets like Japan and the Philippines maintain steady demand for high-quality milling wheat, where the protein content and functional characteristics of U.S. spring wheat varieties remain highly valued. These established relationships provide a foundation for the projected 288 million bushels in exports for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Currency exchange rates will play a significant role in determining export competitiveness. The strength of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies of major wheat-exporting competitors like Canada, Russia, and Australia directly impacts the attractiveness of U.S. wheat in international markets. Current projections suggest modest weakening of the dollar against major currencies in 2025, potentially enhancing U.S. export opportunities.
Global production trends also significantly influence market dynamics. Wheat production in major exporting countries is projected to increase moderately in 2025, creating additional competition in international markets. Russia and Ukraine continue to expand their export presence, particularly in price-sensitive markets that prioritize cost over specific quality characteristics.
Transportation costs and logistics also affect export competitiveness. Recent improvements in rail and port infrastructure are expected to enhance efficiency for spring wheat shipments from the Northern Plains to Pacific Northwest ports, potentially reducing costs and improving delivery times to Asian markets. These logistical enhancements could partially offset other competitive challenges in the global marketplace.
Economic Implications for Farmers and Industry
The projected increase in the stocks-to-use ratio to 41.5% for 2025/26 signals potential downward pressure on spring wheat prices. This market dynamic requires farmers to carefully evaluate their production costs and marketing strategies to maintain profitability. Input costs, including fertilizer, fuel, and seed, continue to challenge producer margins, making efficiency gains increasingly important.
Planting decisions for the 2026 crop year may shift in response to these market signals. Farmers will likely compare expected returns from spring wheat against competing crops like corn, soybeans, and canola when making acreage allocation decisions. The impact of input prices on overall farm profitability will be a key consideration in these decisions.
For processors and end-users, the increased supply outlook presents potential cost advantages. Flour millers and food manufacturers may benefit from more favorable purchasing opportunities throughout the marketing year, potentially helping offset other rising operational costs. This could provide some relief amid broader concerns about rising costs in the baking industry.
Industry organizations like U.S. Wheat Associates and the North American Millers’ Association continue to play important roles in market development and policy advocacy. These organizations provide valuable resources for stakeholders seeking to navigate the changing market landscape, including market intelligence, technical support, and representation on trade policy matters affecting wheat markets.
Comparing Spring Wheat to Other Wheat Classes
Spring wheat’s projected stocks-to-use ratio of 41.5% for 2025/26 contrasts with forecasts for other major wheat classes. Hard red winter wheat, the largest wheat class produced in the United States, is projected to have a tighter supply situation with a stocks-to-use ratio of approximately 32.7%. This difference reflects distinct production regions, end-use markets, and competitive factors affecting these wheat classes.
Soft red winter wheat, primarily used in cookies, crackers, and other pastries, shows a projected stocks-to-use ratio of 37.2% for 2025/26. This places spring wheat in the position of having the most abundant supply relative to demand among the major wheat classes, which could result in price disparities between wheat classes and influence blending strategies among flour millers seeking to optimize cost and functionality.
Historical trend analysis reveals that the projected 41.5% stocks-to-use ratio for spring wheat in 2025/26 exceeds the five-year average of 38.9%, though it remains below historical highs that exceeded 50% in the early 2010s. This historical context suggests that while the current projection indicates a relatively comfortable supply situation, it doesn’t represent an extreme oversupply scenario by historical standards.
The distinctions between wheat classes extend beyond supply metrics to quality characteristics and end-use functionality. Spring wheat’s typically higher protein content and stronger gluten properties maintain its premium position for bread flour applications, even in periods of relatively abundant supply. This quality differential continues to support price premiums for spring wheat compared to other wheat classes, though these premiums may narrow in the upcoming marketing year.
Market Strategies and Future Outlook
As the spring wheat market adjusts to projected higher supplies, stakeholders throughout the value chain will need to adapt their strategies. For farmers, this may include more aggressive forward contracting to secure favorable prices before potential market pressure intensifies. Exploring specialty markets, such as identity-preserved contracts for specific protein levels or organic production, may offer premium opportunities to offset potential price weakness in conventional markets.
Processors and food manufacturers might consider adjusting purchasing strategies to take advantage of potentially lower prices. Building inventory during favorable price periods while maintaining flexibility to respond to quality variations will be important. Recent wheat-related product recalls underscore the continued importance of quality assurance throughout the supply chain.
Market participants should closely monitor several key indicators throughout the 2025/26 marketing year. Weather patterns during critical growing periods, global wheat production reports, export sales data, and currency fluctuations will all provide valuable signals about evolving market conditions. The Minneapolis Grain Exchange futures market will continue to serve as the primary price discovery mechanism for spring wheat, offering both price information and risk management tools.
Looking beyond 2025/26, longer-term trends suggest continued challenges from global competition and ongoing adaptation to climate variability. Investments in research for improved varieties, production practices, and processing technologies will be essential for maintaining the competitive position of U.S. spring wheat in domestic and international markets. By staying informed and flexible, industry stakeholders can effectively navigate the changing landscape of the spring wheat market in the years ahead.